EURUSD: High Time Frame Analysis

As you’d expect, EURUSD is pretty clean when you zoom out to the high time frames.

Starting on the 12-Month chart – from the lows of 2000 they rallied to 1.6 in 2008:

EURUSD 12-Month Chart
EURUSD 12-Month Chart

After 6 years of holding 1.28651, it was finally broken in 2014. Signalling the end of the 12-Month bull trend.

Price then dropped for 3 years until it found support at 1.04151 in 2017.

The support was so strong, that they broke the 12-Month bear trend and started a double bottom reversal pattern.

So now what? Well, price should continue higher, perhaps back to test 1.28651. But there’s a big dump on the lower time frames. Is the 12-Month reversal failing?

Where Will They Find Support?

EURUSD 3-Month Chart

On the 3-Month, we can see they found resistance at 1.23208 which is continuing to put downward pressure on price. From this, it looks like we need to test and hold 1.16163 now to continue higher. 1.17191 could also hold.

But if we don’t get a reaction at these levels, and they close below them on the 3-Month chart, it’s looking bearish AF.

EURUSD 1-Month Chart

On the 1-Month chart, after hitting resistance in early January and dumping, I would have expected 1.19154 to hold, if we were continuing higher. We still have 2 days until the monthly candle paints, so we could still see a big (1.5%) buy back, but it’s looking unlikely.

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