Medium-Term Thoughts On Bitcoin Price

We’ve had a volatile couple of weeks. Popping up to make new all-time-highs above 60k and then retracing back down to almost 45k.

With only 4 days left until the April monthly close, I thought I’d share my thoughts on what I think is likely to happen next.

So, starting with the monthly chart.

BTCUSD 1-Month Chart
BTCUSD 1-Month Chart

If the price doesn’t get above 58782 before the end of April, it’ll be the first time in 6 months that we’ve painted a bear candle.

This doesn’t mean we’re seeing the end of the bull trend. But maybe the first sign of some weakness in an otherwise unrelenting charge.

Or perhaps just some inevitable profit-taking, which is to be expected.

I would expect the 45000 monthly support area to hold on the 1st test. But this might not happen for a while.

Switching to the weekly.

BTCUSD 1-Week reversal
BTCUSD 1-Week reversal

Something significant happened last week. We closed below the weekly support at 55441 and therefore broke the weekly bull trend (the way I define it).

This hasn’t happened significantly since August 2020 (I’m ignoring the Feb 2021 candle).

Now we have a potential reversal setup (especially since we also broke the 2-week trend). We haven’t yet tested the monthly support at 45k, so I’m expecting a retracement up to around 60k, rejection of this level, and a dump to 45k and beyond.

I’ll be looking for trade opportunities in this framework for the next few weeks to come.

And of course, I’m expecting the unexpected. Because nothing is certain!

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