Feeling Good About My Prediction

On Saturday morning we got the move up to 61165 that I’d been waiting for:

BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart

Now it’s time to reassess.

The higher time frame is still bullish, but we can easily get a pullback from here due to the 2-day and 3-day price action.

So, What Next?

Let’s take a step back, clear the chart, and zoom out.

We’re not even halfway through April yet, but I’m expecting a close above 61781 on the monthly to continue the trend.

As we’re making new highs, there’s no price action to the left and therefore no support or resistance levels to play with. But as continuation is always more likely than reversal, I have to be bullish for now on this time frame.

BTCUSD 1-Month Chart
BTCUSD 1-Month Chart

Onto the weekly chart – last week saw an all-time-high close of 59979. More reason to be bullish. It makes this candle significant in my book. If we lose momentum in this move we’ll be looking to hold 55441 or 58213:

BTCUSD 1-Week Chart
BTCUSD 1-Week Chart

The 3-day (and 2-day) are the reason I had 61165 as the target in our previous move. We broke the trend back on 11th March. This resulted in a retracement, then usually a reversal (double-top).

BTCUSD 3-Day Double Top Setup
BTCUSD 3-Day Double Top Setup

However, I’m not expecting this double top to play out in the long term. Due to the bullish monthly and weekly, the rejection at 61165 should ultimately fail.

As mentioned previously, they could find support on a weekly level. Alternatively, we can just break higher now. Of course, nothing is certain.

Jumping into the 1-hour, as they just hit 61165 for the 2nd time, we should get a small pullback, then break through. To do this they’ll need to hold 59979:

BTCUSD 1-Hour Break Higher
BTCUSD 1-Hour Break Higher

We have some patterns appearing. I’m not a big fan of basing my decisions on patterns, rather, using them to frame my trades. But this bull flag could easily play out:

BTCUSD 4-Hour Bull Flag
BTCUSD 4-Hour Bull Flag

It fits nicely into this bigger ascending wedge:

BTCUSD 4-Hour Ascending Wedge
BTCUSD 4-Hour Ascending Wedge

For now, I’m observing how they’re reacting at this 61165 area. Leaning towards a break higher, but the question (as always) is how far they retrace first.

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